Was Monetary Policy Optimal During Past Deflation Scares?

Countries around the world have fallen into one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression—a recession exacerbated by a severe financial crisis. Among the challenges that face monetary policymakers in such uncertain times is the danger economies worldwide, including the United States, Japan, and the euro area, may enter a period of deflation, in which the prices of goods and services fall relentlessly. Policymakers and economists agree that sustained deflation would likely worsen the already fragile economic and financial environment. Past episodes of deflation in the wake of financial crises have included falling asset values, collapsing business and consumer confidence, credit crunches, widespread bankruptcies, long-lasting surges in unemployment, and other adverse conditions. Moreover, a deflationary environment has the potential to complicate the conduct of monetary policy. Central banks typically counteract slowing economic activity by lowering short-term nominal interest rates. But as policy rates approach zero, conventional tools of monetary policy are no longer available to stimulate economic activity.